Decision Science NMIMS Assignment answers available 2023

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Decision Science NMIMS Assignment answers available 2023

Q1. Draw the decision tree diagram and explain the best possible decision based on EMVs
(expected Monetary Values)
On the 1st April 2023, Rajinder Saproo, an investor is in a dilemma for the investment of 10
lakh INR. He has consulted his Mumbai based friend, MukulBhai Gadhecha, an investment
expert for this matter. Mr Saproo went to meet him at his office located at Prabhadevi.
Mukulbhai asked him to express his feeling for the market situation in coming economic year. Mr Saproo assumed the economic growth for the coming year in the following way.
10 % optimist for the ‘Good Economic Growth’
50 % optimist for the ‘Moderate Economic Growth’
40 % optimist for the ‘Lower Economic Growth’.
In addition to this, MuKulbhai Gadhecha carried out his analysis to derive possible payoff
values considering the various investment options as per the economic situations (presented in
the table given below). Figures are in INR on the investment of whole amount of 10 lakhs.
Options Good Economic
Growth
Moderate Economic
Growth
Lower Economic
Growth’
Mauti Suzuki Shares 3,00,000 1,20,000 50,000
TATA Motor Shares 4,00,000 1,00,000 10,000
D Mart shares 4,50,000 2,30,000 30,000
If you were in place of Mukulbhai Gadhecha, What do you recommend to Mr. Saproo?
Note: You are not allowed to use any software for the calculation. But for the preparation of
Decision tree diagram you are advised to use Software like MS -Word, PowerPoint etc.
(10 Marks)
Q2. Draw the appropriate chart using MS EXCEL, also carryout Exponential Smoothing model
in MS EXCEL for the given Alpha values, copy the results (from EXCEL to Word) and explain
which alpha is relatively better for the forecast. In this journey of identification of relatively
better way of forecasting you may take the support of MAD and MSE type of errors. Suggested
Alpha values are 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9. (10 Marks)

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